RAND MG781, Różne dokumenty o SM

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Dangerous
Omnipotent
Exploring the Reach and Limitations
of Iranian Power in the Middle East
Frederic Wehrey
•
David E. Thaler
•
Nora Bensahel
•
Kim Cragin
Jerrold D. Green
•
Dalia Dassa Kaye
•
Nadia Oweidat
•
Jennifer Li
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
PROJECT AIR FORCE
But Not
 The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States
Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may
be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans,
Hq USAF.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Dangerous but not omnipotent : exploring the reach and limitations of Iranian power in
the Middle East / Frederic Wehrey ... [et al.].
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-4554-6 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. United States—Foreign relations—Iran. 2. Iran—Foreign relations—United
States. 3. Iran—Politics and government—1997– 4. Iran—Military policy.
5. Political culture—Iran. 6. State-sponsored terrorism—Iran. 7. Terrorism—
Middle East. 8. Weapons of mass destruction—Iran. 9. Iran—Foreign relations—
Middle East. 10. Middle East—Foreign relations—Iran. I. Wehrey, Frederic M.
E183.8.I55D355 2009
327.73055—dc22
2009009797
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Preface
Canvassing a range of global threats, the 2006 U.S.
National Security
Strategy
warns:
We may face no greater challenge from a single country than
from Iran.
1
Indeed, following the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, the Ira-
nian threat to U.S. interests has taken on seemingly unprecedented
qualities of aggressiveness and urgency. Defying international con-
demnation, the Islamic Republic appears inexorably committed to the
pursuit of nuclear energy that will, at the very least, allow for a break-
out weapon capability. Its longstanding support to Levantine terrorist
groups earned it newfound acclaim in the Arab world following Hez-
bollah’s 2006 war with Israel. Within its conventional arsenal, Iran is
developing new and worrisome naval capabilities for impeding mari-
time access to the Strait of Hormuz, as well as longer-range ballistic
missiles that would put U.S. military assets and American allies in
the region at risk. In Iraq and Afghanistan, Tehran’s clandestine para-
military wing, the Qods Force, has been implicated in supplying lethal
technology to insurgents and paramilitaries.
Added to these immediate provocations is the sense that Iran is
trying to efect far-reaching changes on the regional and even global
stage. Iran has long exercised broad-ranging inluence inside Iraq,
1
National Security Council,
he National Security Strategy of the United States of America
,
Washington, D.C.: he White House, March 2006, p. 1 of opening statement.
iii
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