RAND MG882.sumWithdrawing from Iraq, Różne dokumenty o SM

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Withdrawing from Iraq
Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks,
and Mitigating Strategies
Walter L. Perry, Stuart E. Johnson, Keith Crane,
David C. Gompert, John Gordon IV, Robert E. Hunter,
Dalia Dassa Kaye, Terrence K. Kelly, Eric Peltz, Howard J. Shatz
Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
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Cover photo: The Iraqi flag flutters as a soldier of the 5th Squadron, 4th Cavalry regiment,
salutes during the transfer ceremony of the JSS Ghazaliyah IV security station to full Iraqi
Security Forces control in the Ghazaliyah district of Baghdad on February 14, 2009.
Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP/Getty Images
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Summary
In late 2008, Congress asked the Department of Defense to have the RAND Corpora-
tion assess the feasibility of two alternative schedules for the drawdown of U.S. forces
in Iraq. Since then, the Obama administration has announced a timeline for the draw-
down of U.S. forces. is report accordingly looks at three alternative schedules, one
matching the administration’s intentions, one somewhat faster, and another slower;
judges the risks associated with each; and recommends ways to reduce those risks.
The Alternatives
We consider three alternatives: one in which combat units are drawn down in
12 months, one in which combat units are drawn down in 16 months, and a third one
that retains some combat units for 32 months. In each alternative, all U.S. military
forces will be withdrawn from Iraq by the end of December 2011, in accordance with
the Security Agreement between Iraq and the United States.
1
We assume a start date
of May 1, 2009, for all three alternatives.
e 16-month alternative is our version of how the administration’s August 2010
goal might be achieved. In addition, we offer two additional drawdown schedules: one
faster than the administration’s and another slower. We include these additional alter-
natives to consider the feasibility of altering the administration’s withdrawal frame-
work in the event a faster drawdown is desired or if risks to the security of the depart-
ing U.S. forces or the Iraqi population require a slower-paced drawdown.
We recognize, however, that the selected schedule will become the basis for per-
sonnel and logistics planning. Although attempting to substantially alter the selected
schedule once a drawdown schedule has been selected is possible, doing so would likely
entail major financial and readiness costs. Abruptly switching from one alternative
schedule to another would also have detrimental effects on security and diplomacy in
1
Agreement Between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq on the Withdrawal of United States
Forces from Iraq and the Organization of eir Activities During eir Temporary Presence in Iraq, signed in
Baghdad on November 17, 2008.
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