RAND MG882Withdrawing from Iraq, Różne dokumenty o SM

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Withdrawing from Iraq
Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks,
and Mitigating Strategies
Walter L. Perry, Stuart E. Johnson, Keith Crane,
David C. Gompert, John Gordon IV, Robert E. Hunter,
Dalia Dassa Kaye, Terrence K. Kelly, Eric Peltz, Howard J. Shatz
Prepared for the Ofice of the Secretary of Defense
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
 The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the
Secretary of Defense (OSD) and conducted in the RAND National Defense
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sponsored by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands,
the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and
the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002.
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Cover photo: The Iraqi flag flutters as a soldier of the 5th Squadron, 4th Cavalry regiment,
salutes during the transfer ceremony of the JSS Ghazaliyah IV security station to full Iraqi
Security Forces control in the Ghazaliyah district of Baghdad on February 14, 2009.
Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP/Getty Images
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Preface
Security has improved dramatically in Iraq since 2007; both the U.S. and the Iraqi
governments want to see the U.S. presence reduced and have the Iraqis assume a
greater role in providing for public security. hese developments have brought the
United States to a critical juncture in Iraq. he emerging challenge is to continue a
withdrawal of U.S. forces while preserving security and stability in the country and
in the region. With this in mind, the U.S. Congress provided resources in the iscal
year 2009 Defense Appropriations Act for an independent study to assess alternative
schedules to draw down U.S. forces and efect the transition to Iraqi forces provid-
ing for the nation’s security. his study assesses the feasibility of three such plans and
makes recommendations designed to reduce the risks attendant on withdrawal; these
recommendations are, for the most part, relevant whichever drawdown schedule is
ultimately met. he analysis supporting this report was completed in May 2009, and
the illustrative schedules all assume implementation decisions having been made in
time for implementation in May, if not earlier. To the extent that such decisions are
made later, the schedules would likely be pushed back accordingly. We recognize that
any drawdown schedule that calls for U.S. forces remaining in Iraq beyond the end
of December 2011 would require renegotiating the Security Agreement between the
United States and Iraq.
he RAND Corporation National Defense Research Institute was asked to
conduct this study. his report documents the study indings. It describes alterna-
tive drawdown schedules and analyzes how internal Iraqi security and stability and
regional political and military issues might afect and be afected by these plans. It
should interest senior members of the Obama administration, including policymakers
in the Departments of Defense and State, members of Congress, and military planners
and operators.
his research was sponsored by the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of
Defense for International Security Afairs and conducted within the International
Security and Defense Policy Center (ISDP) of the RAND National Defense Research
Institute (NDRI), a federally funded research and development center sponsored by
the Oice of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staf, the Uniied Combatant Com-
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